India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa in tussle to make World Test Championship final

India
Percentage points: 68.06, matches remaining: NZ (two home), Aus (five away)

If India get fewer than 56 points, then there is a possibility of them not being in the top two. For instance, if they win four and draw one (52 points), then it’s possible for Australia and South Africa to overtake them. Sri Lanka can finish with more than 67% too, but wins for them will be at the expense of points for both Australia and South Africa. That will work in India’s favour as Australia and South Africa could then both finish below India.

Australia
Percentage points: 62.50, matches remaining: Ind (five home), SL (two away)

Currently in second place at 62.5%, Australia can finish on a maximum of 76.32 if they win each of their remaining seven Tests. The two teams against whom they play their remaining series, India and Sri Lanka, are also strong contenders for the final, so wins against them will doubly help Australia’s cause. Five wins will lift their percentage to 65.79, but India and South Africa can still go past them. Things will be clearer by the time they start the series against India, though, as the visitors would have finished their three home Tests against New Zealand.

Sri Lanka
Percentage points: 55.56, matches remaining: SA (two away Tests), Aus (two at home)

With a full 24 points gained from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining Tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If they win each of those matches and take home 48 more points (keep in mind over-rate deductions are always a threat), they will finish on 69.23% and assure themselves of a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three they will end up at 61.54, which will still leave them with a chance of qualifying, depending on other results.

New Zealand
Percentage points: 44.44, matches remaining: Ind (two away), Eng (three home)

New Zealand can still finish with a percentage as high as 64.29 if they win all five remaining Tests, but that remains a tough ask despite their victory in the first Test against India in Bengaluru. Even if they win three of those five Tests and lose two, they will finish at only 50%.

Bangladesh
Percentage points: 34.38, matches remaining: WI (two away), SA (two home)

The two defeats in India have hurt Bangladesh badly – from 45.83% they have dropped to 34.38. Even if they win each of their four remaining Tests, they will only improve to 56.25. Even that is unlikely to be enough for a place in the top two.

South Africa
Percentage points: 38.89, matches remaining: SL (two home), Pak (two home), Ban (two away)

If South Africa win each of their six remaining Tests they will finish with 69.44%, which will surely be enough for qualification, as only one out of India or Australia can go past that number. Five wins and a draw will leave them with 63.89, which will still keep them in contention, while five wins and a defeat will lower the percentage marginally to 61.11, which will still give them a chance if other results go their way.

England
Percentage points: 43.06, matches remaining: Pak (one away), NZ (three away)

After winning and losing their first two Tests in Pakistan, England can no longer finish with more than 60 percentage points. For them to qualify with that score, they will need several other results to work in their favour.

Pakistan
Percentage points: 25.93, matches remaining: Eng (one home), SA (two away), WI (two home)

Pakistan’s win against England in Multan has pushed their percentage points above 20, but they can’t get above 60 even if they win all their remaining matches in this cycle.

West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, matches remaining: Ban (two home), Pak (two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have only scored 20 points out of 108. Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish on 43.59%.