Hurricane Milton on path for Florida landfall as a potentially historic major storm

Hurricane Milton barreled across the Gulf of Mexico’s warm waters Tuesday on a path for the west coast of Florida, where mass evacuations clogged highways as people prepared for a potentially historic storm. Some communities, like those in and around the Tampa Bay area, were still reeling from the impacts of Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.

“While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay described Milton as “a historic storm for the west coast of Florida” that could prove to be the worst storm to impact Tampa Bay in more than 100 years.

Floridians in the potential path of the hurricane lined properties with sandbags, boarded up doors and windows, and moved their boats ahead of the storm’s arrival. Gov. Ron DeSantis issued emergency orders over the weekend that now include 51 counties, whose residents, he said, should prepare for power outages, stock up on enough food and water to last a week and be ready to leave their homes if necessary.

Tracking Hurricane Milton

Milton on Tuesday was traveling just north of the Yucatán Peninsula, where the Mexican government issued hurricane warnings as forecasters expected damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge to hit portions of the coast. The storm, a powerful Category 4 hurricane, had weakened somewhat since its maximum sustained wind speeds swirled past 180 mph Monday during a rapid period of intensification that the National Hurricane Center called “explosive” and “remarkable.”

That peak strength rivaled the most disastrous Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history and happened at breakneck speed. Milton was a tropical storm only 24 hours before it snowballed into a Category 5 hurricane, the highest ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates storms based on their sustained wind speeds.

Milton dropped back down to Category 4 overnight. By Tuesday afternoon, the storm churned over the Yucatán Peninsula with maximum wind speeds hovering around 155 mph — which is just shy of the threshold for Category 5. Forecasters said they expected Milton to retain its status as a major hurricane on its way to the western Florida coast.

“It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation,” the hurricane center said Tuesday morning. “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Tampa Bay braces for landfall

The latest forecasts suggest Milton will make landfall either on or near the Tampa Bay area late Wednesday or very early Thursday, likely as a formidable Category 3 hurricane. Although predictions as to Milton’s landfall location and timing have oscillated somewhat since Monday, when the storm underwent rapid changes, forecasts have remained fairly steady as far as the hurricane’s intensity when it strikes land. Milton’s wind speeds at that time are expected to fall to about 125 mph, according to the hurricane center. For impacted places, that could be devastating.

Exactly where the hurricane is centered when Milton arrives on land may determine the extent of the destruction it wreaks on the Tampa Bay area, mainly linked to storm surge, wrote CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan.

“The forecast track with Milton has its sights set on the western coast of Florida, but the position of the center of the storm, or the ‘eye,’ can determine how catastrophic the impacts are on the Tampa Bay area,” Nolan said. “The eastern side of the eye is considered the ‘dirty side’ of the storm, which is where the winds tend to be the strongest. As the forecast track shifts northward, the dirty side then falls over Tampa Bay.”

That creates more serious risks of storm surge in the region, according to Nolan. Forecasts have warned Milton’s arrival could bring potentially life-threatening storm surge to the Florida Gulf Coast, which is particularly vulnerable to severe surges because of its geography, and that is especially true for Tampa Bay. Multiple people died in Tampa from storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene, and that storm did not even hit the city directly.

Storm surge forecast

Hurricane and storm surge warnings expanded Tuesday to include large sections of Florida’s eastern coast, which could potentially see surges up to 4 feet above ground level as Milton tracks inland over the state after making landfall, on its route toward the Atlantic. Coastal places in Georgia and South Carolina could experience several feet of storm surge too.

Storm surge threats are a major concern for the west coast of Florida. In addition to hurricane warnings in place from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, storm surge warnings were also in effect from Flamingo northward to the same location, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. 

The hurricane center has warned that storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach 10 to 15 feet above ground level.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the hurricane center said in a Monday afternoon advisory. “Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.”  

Forecasts show heavy rainfall, up to 15 inches in certain areas, could cause “considerable flash, urban and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding” in parts of the Florida peninsula though Thursday.

Evacuation zones

Mass evacuations were underway as Florida airports canceled flights, and schools as far south as Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties announced closures ahead of Milton’s expected arrival. Thousands fled the Tampa Bay area and parts of the surrounding region were under mandatory evacuation orders issued Monday and Tuesday.

“We are talking about the possibility now of a direct hit,” said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor in a CNN interview Monday, where she urged people to heed storm warnings and follow evacuation protocols. Castor noted that storm surge caused by Helene, while destructive, was significantly lower than the surge forecast for a vast stretch of Florida’s western coast, including Tampa, with Milton.

“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re going to die,” Castor said.

President Biden echoed the mayor Tuesday morning as the White House announced he would postpone a trip to Germany and Angola to monitor the response to Hurricane Milton.

“I’ve urged everyone, everyone currently located in Hurricane Milton’s path to listen to local officials and follow safety instructions,” Mr. Biden said. “… If you’re under evacuation orders, you should evacuate now, now, now — you should have already evacuated. It’s a matter of life and death.”

Mr. Biden said he preapproved emergency declarations in Florida and sent Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell to the state Monday. The president also said he has spoken to all political leaders in the region expected to feel Milton’s impacts and told them, “Anything they ask for, they can get.”